Analysts say that in the next few months Belarusian authorities are to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and so far Alyaksandr Lukashenka is temporizing because of the Eastern Partnership program.
Belarus is playing for time with recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but sooner or later, in May or June, and it will do it, polit.ru was told by the leading researcher the Institute for international economic and political studies of the Russian Academy of Science Aleksey Shurubovich.
“The parliament” of Belarus hasn’t included in the agenda the issue of South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s recognition, though Alyaksandar Lukashenka personally promised to Dmitry Medvedev that the parliament would adopt a decision on this issue.
As said by Aleksey Shurubovich, though the issue of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s recognition hasn’t been included in the agenda of the session of the “parliament”, it is being discussed in the international affairs and the CIS relations commission of the “parliament”.
“It could be said that no top level decision has been adopted. Lukashenka does not think this recognition is possible so far,” he said.
The expert believes that it is connected with Belarus’ inclusion in the Eastern partnership program, which is to be officially launched in May.
“It is possible that the Belarusian leadership is simply temporizing as the European Union leadership had warned Belarus that in case of Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s recognition its membership would be doubtful,” Shurubovich explained.
But another variant is possible: “By refusing to offer a 100 billion loan to Belarus, Russia has given Lukashenka a handle to postpone recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia”.
However the expert believes that “sooner or later Belarus is to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but it will be still temporizing,” “it could happen perhaps in May, or in June, but it is to do it one way or another”.