Zatulin’s Vision for Abkhazia: Pragmatism or Pressure?

SUKHUM / AQW’A — The recent protests in Abkhazia over the Russian-Abkhaz investment agreement have sparked strong reactions, including from State Duma Deputy Konstantin Zatulin. He accuses the opposition of using the turmoil to destabilise the country ahead of elections, while also emphasising Russia’s role as Abkhazia’s key ally.

We examine Zatulin’s statements and present AbkhazWorld’s response, challenging his views and shedding light on the ongoing struggle to balance external influence with Abkhazia’s sovereignty and independence.

State Duma Deputy Konstantin Zatulin, in an interview with NSN, interpreted these actions as attempts to destabilise the republic ahead of the upcoming presidential elections.

"Russia considers Abkhazia an ally, a country we have recognised and supported. If the agreement is not ratified, our ability to assist Abkhazia will be significantly reduced. Frankly, Abkhazia depends on this support. Opposition members disregard this, operating under the logic that worsening conditions will benefit them before the elections. They believe they can come to power and negotiate everything afterward. I would caution them against such adventurism," Zatulin stated.

Hundreds of protesters gathered today at the parliament building in Sukhum, where deputies intended to decide on the ratification of the investment agreement with Russia. The session was disrupted, and the date for the next meeting has not been announced. However, opponents of the agreement did not disperse; they demanded its rejection and substantial revision. A protester's truck broke through the gates surrounding the parliament's territory. Participants took control of the entire government complex in Sukhum, including the cabinet of ministers and parliament. Security forces maintaining order inside left the premises. Subsequently, negotiations began between opposition representatives and the government.

"Of course, rejecting the investment agreement is not in Abkhazia's interest. Those who came to the parliament are opposition representatives seeking any excuse to destabilise the republic before the upcoming presidential elections and to portray the authorities negatively. They don't care what pretext to use. For some time now, they have found nothing better than to attempt to torpedo various Russian-Abkhaz agreements. They suspect both Russia and those who negotiate with it. I see nothing good in the opposition choosing this method—for the republic or for the opposition itself," Zatulin added.

The deputy asserts that most Abkhaz residents calmly accept or support investment from Russia. He noted that this was evident when the opposition "rehearsed" on Monday, November 11, by blocking bridges and roads.

"Ordinary citizens were most outraged by this. As a result, the bridges and roads had to be unblocked," he said.

Konstantin Zatulin hopes that the protesting opposition will reach an internal agreement and cease their actions.

"There are different people in the opposition, including radicals. There are also quite respectable individuals who are critical of the authorities, have their own viewpoints, but understand their responsibility. I hope that some will restrain others and that there will be no illegal actions. Abkhazia is a small country, and I wouldn't advise anyone to take risks. I sincerely hope that deputies will objectively assess the agreement, not under the influence of emotions, as it poses no harm to Abkhazia. On the contrary, it addresses issues that have accumulated over the years," Zatulin concluded.

Abkhazia: Between the Hammer and the Anvil

AbkhazWorld's commentary on Zalutin's remarks and Abkhazia-Russia relations.

As we often emphasize, the complex web of geopolitical interests leaves Abkhazia in a precarious position, aptly described by the metaphor of being caught between the hammer (Russia) and the anvil (Georgia).

Neither of our two neighbours acknowledges us, nor do they make any effort to know or learn about us. Both hold the mistaken belief that they are the sole arbiters of the best decisions regarding our future. Occasionally, they even align in their efforts to turn this ignorance-laden delusion into reality, often failing to achieve their desired outcomes. Yet, they persist, repeating the same mistakes over and over again, never learning from their failures.

Zatulin believes that this agreement is beneficial for our country. If this agreement is truly advantageous, Russia should immediately sign a similar one with its closest ally. Let them show us how beneficial it is and set an example for us. If we see its value, perhaps we’ll follow their lead. Wouldn’t that be reasonable, Mr. Zatulin?

As we have pointed out, we are well aware of Russia's influence on us, but this influence is a direct result of international isolation imposed by Georgia. Recognition or even economic, political cooperation from other nations could drastically shift this dynamic.

In 2008, Sergey Shamba, Abkhazia current Foreign Minister, was asked about Russia's influence over Abkhazia and whether it was a concern for him. He responded:

"It is difficult for us, but the European states don't provide us with any alternative. They have closed all the doors to us. What should we do? Our ties with Russia solve practically all of our problems. For small Abkhazia, the large Russian market, Russian tourists, or the security guarantee is enough. We have the right to dual citizenship. In order to travel to different countries outside of Russia, our citizens also have Russian passports."

Indeed, Russia is content with this situation. For instance, who really believes that Moscow would welcome Abkhazia being recognised by the international community, as it would undermine Russia's influence not only in Abkhazia but also in the North Caucasus.

Imagine if the USA were to recognise Abkhazia... Certainly that Russia would indirectly resist such recognition, not out of hostility, but simply because it does not align with Russia’s national interests. Despite officially recognising Abkhazia's independence, Russia might not fully support Abkhazia gaining wider international recognition. Russia’s decision to recognise Abkhazia's independence in 2008 was likely motivated more by strategic considerations than by Abkhazia’s specific needs. This recognition has allowed Russia to solidify its foothold in a region it deems vital to its interests. We are fully aware of that.

But as Shamba said what can we do? "It is difficult for us, but the European states don't provide us with any alternative." Abkhazia does not wish to be part of either Georgia or Russia. This must be clearly understood.

If anyone wishes to complain about Russian influence in Abkhazia, they would be better off engaging with Abkhazia and opening a new door to integrate it with the rest of the world.

So, the relationship between Russia and Abkhazia is far more complex than a straightforward regional alliance. The strategic value of Abkhazia to Russia is arguably as significant as Russia's importance to Abkhazia. Moscow's current role as Abkhazia's primary external partner grants it considerable influence, a reality that aligns with Russia's broader geopolitical objectives.

It’s important to note that Russia’s stance on Abkhazia is not unusual in international relations. Nations typically act in ways that serve their perceived national interests. However, this reality presents a significant challenge for Abkhazia. To maintain its sovereignty and pursue its own objectives, that's why we Abkhazians must carefully navigate its relationship with Russia. The key for Abkhazia lies in developing policies and strategies that prioritise its national interests rather than automatically aligning with Russia’s agenda. This approach is crucial for Abkhazia to avoid excessive dependence on Russia and to chart its own path in the international arena.

Finally, as Stanislav Lakoba said: As for our own position, we could note the following - today some people say that Abkhazia is Russia, others that it is Georgia, while the fact is that Abkhazia is Abkhazia. And at the end of the century we want to preserve our own identity, our own face for the simple reason that it is ours, even if somebody else may not find it appealing.

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