Sergey Markedonov: "Understanding Abkhazia’s Protests Requires Distinguishing Causes from Triggers"
With detainees freed, roads blocked by protesters reopened.
This article by Sergey Markedonov, originally written in Russian and translated into English by AbkhazWorld, examines the recent protests in Abkhazia, exploring their causes, implications, and the complexities of the republic’s relationship with Russia.
On the evening of 11 November, troubling news emerged from Abkhazia: opposition representatives had blocked bridges leading to the republic's capital. The following day, President Aslan Bzhania convened an emergency meeting of the Security Council. Social media, news agencies, and Telegram channels buzzed with speculation about a potential new political crisis in Abkhazia. How serious are these concerns? Could the unrest strain relations between Moscow and Sukhum? Such speculations often arise during protests in the republic, which are far from rare.
Understanding the distinction between causes and triggers is key. Abkhaz authorities and opposition figures offer starkly different explanations. Opposition critics argue that the immediate trigger for the bridge blockades (which were cleared by 12 November) was the detention of five individuals who had attended a public meeting in the Gudauta district. Meanwhile, pro-government voices claim the opposition is acting destructively, inciting public dissatisfaction.
However, the underlying causes run much deeper. Abkhazia faces a difficult dilemma: to embrace greater Russian economic involvement at the risk of increased influence from Moscow, or to continue pursuing "independence" and "uniqueness," risking further stagnation. The republic's struggle for self-determination is complex, and its history frequently echoes in current events. For instance, as recently as the summer of 2024, a law allowing the construction of hotels by Russian entities without land alienation was withdrawn from parliament due to public pressure.
+ Detentions Spark Protests Amid Rising Tensions in Abkhazia
+ Public Outcry Grows in Abkhazia with Opposition Detentions
+ All Recently Detained Opposition Figures Released
+ Is it true that a crisis has arisen in Russia-Abkhazia relations? By Sergey Markedonov
On 7 October, the Abkhaz Parliament discussed an Investment Agreement with Russia. Several deputies opposed the draft, criticising the government for pushing the agreement without sufficient input from the legislative body. Despite this, on 30 October, the Ministry of Economy announced on its website that the agreement had been signed with the Russian government. The project envisions Russian legal entities undertaking investment initiatives in Abkhazia. The document is scheduled for parliamentary review on 15 November, with further debate on its feasibility likely to continue.
Observers unfamiliar with Abkhazian specifics may interpret the protests as anti-Russian sentiment, assuming that any protest signals a "colour revolution" and a geopolitical shift. However, Abkhazia is accustomed to political disputes and heated debates. Leadership changes through protests have occurred multiple times, yet these shifts have never resulted in the republic's "Westernisation."
In late October, the Eurasian Cooperation Development Fund conducted a study titled "Russia-Abkhazia Alliance: Myths and Realities." According to the survey, 93% of respondents view Russia as Abkhazia's main ally. Given the absence of other potential allies ready to recognise the republic or guarantee its security and economic development, such perspectives remain grounded. Freedom of expression and public discourse in Abkhazia should not be conflated with a rejection of its pro-Russian stance.
The author is a senior research fellow at MGIMO and the editor-in-chief of the journal "International Analytics."