Protests in Abkhazia: Causes and Context, by Oleg Shein
Oleg Shein, Former Member of the State Duma
Recent protests in Abkhazia have drawn the attention of Russia's political circles. Providing context, Russian social and political activist Oleg Shein, a former left-wing deputy of the State Duma for multiple terms, shares his insights into the underlying causes of the demonstrations. Originally posted on his Telegram account in Russian, his commentary has been translated into English by AW.
Protests in Abkhazia: Causes and Context
Recent unrest in Abkhazia briefly caught the attention of Russia’s political circles. But what are the underlying causes?
Unlike South Ossetia, which is a small valley with a population of around 30,000 seeking closer integration with Russia, Abkhazia is building an independent state founded on principles of military democracy. Leadership positions in the country require knowledge of the Abkhaz language, a language as complex as Chinese, making it challenging for non-Abkhaz ethnic groups, such as Russians and Armenians, to assume top roles.
Since gaining independence, Abkhazia has seen five presidents. While the first two passed away in office (many believe Vladislav Ardzinba was poisoned during negotiations with the Georgians) [Abkhazians generally avoid discussing it, though Ardzinba himself suggested he was poisoned, but not in Tbilisi. Meanwhile, Sergey Bagapsh’s death also raised questions, as he passed away in a Moscow hospital from complications following what was supposed to be a straightforward operation for a smoker’s lung condition. —Ed.], the third resigned following mass protests, and the fourth failed to secure re-election and was forced to step down. Elections in Abkhazia are competitive, and the parliament plays a significant role in governance.
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Critics often compare the ruins of Sukhum with the glittering modernity of Batumi in Georgia. However, while Batumi attracted European investments, Abkhazia deliberately kept foreign investors at bay, fearing the loss of sovereignty and becoming a satellite economy like Barbados, where much of the land and industry is owned by foreign businesses and locals serve as the workforce.
The primary point of contention is the "Investment Agreement." This deal centres on attracting large-scale Russian capital capable of investing over 2 billion rubles ($20 Million) in individual projects. To put this in perspective, Abkhazia’s entire budget is 12 billion rubles ($120 Million), with around 5 billion ($50 Million)coming from Russian financial aid.
Under the agreement, Abkhazia would be obligated to approve any proposed investment project, allocate land and infrastructure for it, reimburse 50% of VAT, and waive profit and property taxes for eight years. Investors would also have the right to bring in workers from outside the region, bypassing local labour resources. Initially, the deal included full VAT reimbursement, but Abkhazia managed to negotiate a concession.
The agreement covers all sectors of the economy, including tourism, utilities, energy generation, agriculture, and industrial production, excluding food production.
Furthermore, Abkhazia would not be allowed to introduce new regulations related to environmental standards, architecture, or other requirements that would apply retroactively to existing investment agreements. While the agreement includes provisions for Abkhazia to compensate investors for damages, there is no reciprocal clause holding investors accountable for potential damages.
These conditions have sparked significant concern among Abkhazian citizens, forming the backdrop for the recent wave of protests. Many fear that the agreement undermines Abkhazia’s sovereignty and prioritises external interests over local needs. This is the essence of the discontent driving the demonstrations.
Oleg Shein