Abkhaz Elections Under Russian Pressure, by Izida Chania

The election campaign in Abkhazia is taking place under intense pressure from Russian media and anonymous platforms allegedly of Abkhaz origin. These outlets are attempting to manipulate public opinion in favour of the pro-government candidate, employing blatant intimidation with threats of sanctions from Abkhazia's strategic partner. The pro-government candidate has nothing substantive to offer voters. He persistently avoids addressing the pressing issues that concern the public, relying instead on disinformation, electoral fraud, and the discrediting of his opponents in the information space. Even before the election results are announced, we are being pre-emptively presented with a preordained president.

This resembles an information war waged by Russia against the people of Abkhazia. Illegal public opinion polls, authorised by officials loyal to Bzhaniev, are conducted daily. People are accosted on the streets of towns, telephoned from Moscow and St Petersburg, and told to expect the pro-government candidate’s victory in the first or second round. Little regard is given to the accuracy of these surveys, and Abkhazian electoral laws are flagrantly ignored.

I recall a scandal surrounding another poll conducted several years ago by the Abkhaz Centre for Strategic Research. What specifically outraged our Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and security services about that survey remains unclear, its results were never published. However, the pressure exerted on its organisers was significant, despite the high status of the Centre’s director, his loyalty to the sitting government, and even the formal approval of then-President Bzhania for the poll to proceed. Today’s pre-election polls, however, provoke no reaction from the MFA, the Security Council, the security services, or the Prosecutor's Office, even though they are being conducted by foreign research centres in violation of Abkhaz law. The Central Election Commission's (CEC) declaration of these polls as unlawful holds little weight, as no government institution tasked with upholding Abkhazian law has responded.

In effect, Russian media have replaced the campaign efforts of the pro-government candidate, former Vice President Badra Gunba, with attacks on his opponent, Adgur Ardzinba. The tactics are crude and unprofessional, but for an Abkhazian society unfamiliar with modern electoral strategies, they might suffice. Absurd and mutually contradictory fake documents are being circulated, ostensibly to discredit the pro-government candidate’s primary competitor. These documents cater to every taste: one claims that the opposition candidate has agreed to the terms of Russian oligarchs and will continue the policies of former President Bzhania, while another, entirely contradictory, asserts that he is a “Turkish agent.”

The falsified texts are clumsily crafted, with signatures copied from Wikipedia and doctored photographs showing staged public support for the pro-government candidate. The carelessness is apparent; some propaganda materials even feature images of deceased individuals. Yet, for an electorate that is highly susceptible to the written word and easily influenced, any method seems to be deemed acceptable.

The social media channels aligned with Bzhania and pro-government candidate Badra Gunba have been actively distributing fake documents aimed at discrediting opposition figures. A recent case involved a fabricated parliamentary inquiry falsely attributed to Turkey’s Nationalist Movement Party leader, Devlet Bahçeli, a key ally of President Erdoğan. The fake document alleged that Bahçeli targeted Armenians in Abkhazia while defending opposition leaders by explicitly naming each of them. However, investigations confirmed that the inquiry was absent from official Parliament records, and Bahçeli’s signature had been copied directly from Wikipedia and changed its colour. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that he has not submitted a single parliamentary inquiry in over 25 years of serving in the Parliament. — Ed.

The signature on the fake document.

The signature from Wikipedia.

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Pensioners are being held hostage with the looming threat of Russia ceasing to pay Soviet-era pensions, while dissenters face the prospect of losing Russian citizenship, as per Bzhaniev’s list of “enemies of Russia.” Both official and anonymous media outlets have begun naming Abkhaz citizens stripped of their Russian citizenship, threatening others who openly oppose the government, including civil society representatives and activists. The list of the “guilty” includes war veterans, participants in the national liberation movement, and young people. What unites all these “enemies of Russia” is that they have become personal adversaries of Bzhania, obstructing his plans to undermine Abkhaz statehood.

What surprises me most is how easily our strategic ally strips Abkhaz citizens of their fundamental right to freedom of movement, simply because they are deemed undesirable by Aslan Bzhania and his clique.

One must ask: were it not Russian politicians themselves who, just a month ago, condemned the social energy outflow from Russia being diverted into cryptocurrency mining? And were these not the same Abkhaz officials, now enjoying overtly sanctioned support from Russian state media, who profited from cheap electricity supplied to Abkhazia?

Let’s now consider the likely aftermath if the Ankvab-Bzhaniev agenda resurfaces, as it did during the public protests of 15 November, which ultimately led to the resignation of failed officials. Foreign oligarchs will find support while Abkhaz businesses are destroyed. The prices of essential goods will skyrocket due to the implementation of Ankvab’s decree on increased customs duties, temporarily suspended by acting President Valery Bganba. Electricity tariffs will rise dramatically, the energy sector will be sold off, and prices for everything else will climb further.

The demographic crisis will worsen, as debates over apartments and the sale of property to foreigners resurface. The destruction of Abkhaz businesses and the sale of state assets will follow, alongside agreements granting privileges to foreign investors. Persecution of dissenters, the opposition, civil society activists, and NGOs will intensify. Corruption will deepen, and power will be further consolidated.

As for foreign policy, does it even need to be mentioned? Has anyone failed to notice that over the past five years, our foreign ministry has completely changed course, abandoning efforts to secure recognition of our country? If not, then it’s time to pay attention to this as well.

This raises the question: who exactly benefits from the information campaign in support of Badra Gunba, the puppet presidential candidate? Over the past five years, in his role as vice president, he has demonstrated a complete inability to make decisions in the country’s best interests. The answer is clear: the corrupt government that has plunged the nation into crises of every kind—economic, energy, environmental (with repercussions yet to be fully realised), and socio-political.

Of course, ours is a small country, the stakes are high, the pressure immense, and the people inexperienced in modern technologies. However, I want to draw the attention of sociologists, political scientists, and analysts to one crucial point: in response to this policy of coercion, distrust of our strategic ally will grow, alongside suspicions of a secret collusion between Moscow and Tbilisi.

This article was published by Nuzhnaya Gazeta and is translated from Russian.