Opinion – Editorial

The Central Election Commission (CEC) of Abkhazia has announced that Badra Gunba has won the presidential runoff election, securing 54.73% of the vote. His opponent, Adgur Ardzinba, received 41.54%, according to preliminary results.

When Badra Gunba declared victory in Abkhazia’s presidential election, one Telegram channel, RESPUBLICA, put it bluntly:

"We congratulate Abkhazia on the return of Aslan Bzhania."

The wording was no accident. For many in Abkhazia, Gunba’s presidency does not represent a new chapter, but rather a continuation of Bzhania’s rule under a different name. The question is not whether Gunba will follow in Bzhania’s footsteps, but rather whether he was ever anything but Bzhania’s chosen successor.

A Candidate Handpicked by Bzhania?

Gunba’s rise to power was never accidental. He served as Bzhania’s vice president, his second-in-command throughout his administration. Even in the chaotic days of November 2024, when protests forced Bzhania to resign, the former president insisted that only his deputy, Gunba, should take over.

It was a clear indication that Gunba was not an independent figure but rather the continuity candidate, the one Bzhania and his allies trusted to preserve their influence and policies.

Badra Gunba celebrates his victory alongside Aslan Bzhania in the early hours of the morning.

This loyalty to the former president extended to the cabinet as well. According to analysts, Gunba, like most members of Bzhania’s government, has remained aligned with his former leader, maintaining a political structure that favours continuity over change.

A Divided Electorate and a Fragile Mandate

Gunba may have won, but the results highlight a deeply divided electorate. With only a 14% margin separating the candidates, his presidency does not begin with an overwhelming mandate.

Abkhazia remains politically fragmented, and Gunba’s challenge will not be limited to implementing policies but also legitimising his leadership in the eyes of the opposition and the public. This result reflects an electorate split between continuity and change.

Moreover, the absence of a strong “third force” in Abkhaz politics remains evident. The ‘Against All’ option received just 2,065 votes, indicating that while dissatisfaction with both candidates existed, it was not enough to produce an alternative movement.

To consolidate his position, Gunba will need to navigate a fractured political landscape, balancing elite factions while attempting to unite society around broader national priorities. However, given his close ties to Bzhania and his inner circle, it seems unlikely that he will be able to achieve this independently.

While Moscow has played a key role in shaping Abkhazia’s political landscape, it does not fully control its internal processes. 

Moscow’s Influence: Influence or Control?

Gunba’s path to the presidency was paved with renewed Russian involvement in Abkhazia. Following the first round of elections, Moscow dramatically increased its engagement with Sukhum, in ways that raised questions about direct intervention:

• Gunba held phone talks with Russian Economic Minister Maxim Reshetnikov and Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova.
• For the first time in over 30 years, a plane landed at Sukhum airport, a so-called "test flight" from Moscow. The event was framed as a historic moment, a sign of Abkhazia’s revitalised infrastructure.
• Before the airport showcase, Gunba travelled to Moscow, where he held meetings with several high-ranking officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
• Power cuts suddenly stopped, something Bzhania had failed to resolve for five years.
• Pensions were suddenly paid without issue.
• Russia provided financial aid at just the right moment.
• Road resurfacing and asphalt work were carried out in many parts of Sukhum.
• Russia sent school buses to Abkhazia, an unusual pre-election gesture.
• Moscow dispatched a specialised medical aircraft to evacuate patients—though its departure was delayed due to a mechanical failure.
• The Russian Health Minister, Mikhail Murashko, made a high-profile visit to Abkhazia during the election period.
• The "Victory Train" [WW2] museum and "Lastochka" train from Russia’s Sirius educational centre arrived in Sukhum, reinforcing cultural ties at a critical political moment.

And throughout it all, Badra Gunba was there. Gunba’s team was on the ground, ensuring that these developments were framed as part of his leadership vision. Citizens were told that these improvements were a direct result of Gunba’s initiatives.

Ultimately, these developments reinforced the prevailing view that Russia was not merely supporting Gunba, but actively securing his electoral victory.

However, it is important to examine Russia’s involvement in realistic terms. While Moscow has played a key role in shaping Abkhazia’s political landscape, it does not fully control its internal processes. This is evident in developments such as the 'Apartment Law,' which was withdrawn from parliament despite external pressure, and the 'Foreign Agents' law, which was not even brought to parliament for discussion. The relationship is asymmetrical, Abkhazia relies on Russia far more than Russia prioritises Abkhazia.

This creates a delicate dynamic, where Russia prefers stability in Abkhazia, yet at the same time struggles to micromanage its turbulent political landscape. Gunba’s presidency will be defined, in part, by how he navigates this dependence.

"Forgive Us" – A Photo Taken at Vladislav Ardzinba's Grave Spreads on Social Media.

+ Who is Behind the Advertising Strategy of Badra Gunba’s Campaign?

+ Badra Gunba’s Special Test Flight: A 'Masterclass' in Election Propaganda

+ Is Defending Abkhazia’s Interests a Threat to Russia’s Security?

+ Misconceptions and Misinformation in Russian Media on Abkhazia, by Sergey Markedonov 

+ Abkhazian Political Organisations Condemn Election Manipulations in Joint Statement

Beyond Simplistic Geopolitical Narratives

Abkhazia’s election has often been framed in oversimplified geopolitical terms, as a battle between pro-Russian and anti-Russian forces, or even as an East vs. West struggle.

This narrative is misleading. The real struggle in Abkhazia is not about ideology but about elite power struggles, economic hardship, and governance failures.

• The fake accusations against Adgur Ardzinba, being "pro-Türkiye," "anti-Armenian," or nationalist, were part of a broader political campaign to discredit him rather than a reflection of real ideological divisions.
• The tensions during the election were driven by internal rivalries, competition for control over resources, and the interests of political and business elites rather than by a simple pro-Russia vs. anti-Russia divide.

Gunba’s challenge now is to move beyond campaign rhetoric and prove that he is capable of governing, something his predecessor, Bzhania, ultimately failed to do.

Gunba's ability to govern effectively will depend on whether he can break the cycle of political instability, curb elite infighting, and deliver tangible governance improvements, especially in areas like economic recovery, crime reduction, and energy security.

Addressing his supporters after the election, Gunba sought to present himself as a leader for all of Abkhazia, calling for unity despite the deep political divides:

"This is not the victory of Badra Gunba and Beslan Bighvava’s team. This must be a victory for the people of Abkhazia. For the future of our country, we must stand united."

While his supporters portray him as a competent crisis manager, critics argue that his presidency is merely a continuation of Bzhania’s rule under a different name.

Bzhania Steps Aside, Gumbzhania Rises?

Gunba may have fought his way through a difficult election, but now comes the real test, can he govern?

Bzhania 2.0 or His Own Leader?

Gunba’s rise to power raises an uncomfortable question: Will he govern as an independent leader, or will he simply continue Bzhania’s policies under a different name?

His track record and the circumstances of his rise suggest that he is more of a Bzhania 2.0 than a new political force. But in the end, only time will tell whether he will step out of his predecessor’s shadow, or if his presidency will simply maintain the same political order with a different face.

Abkhazia now waits to see what the future holds.

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Badra Gunba: Background and Political Career

Badra Gunba: Abkhazia’s Newly Elected President

Badra Gunba was born on August 14, 1981 in Sukhum, Abkhazia . He holds a PhD in Economics from Saratov State Agrarian University , specializing in Accounting and Auditing .

Gunba's career has been primarily within government and financial sectors, holding various key positions over the years:

• 2004–2006 – Worked in the financial department of the Saratov administration .
• 2007–2009 – Served as Legal Adviser to the Cabinet of Ministers of Abkhazia .
• 2009–2011 – Appointed Deputy Minister of Culture .
• 2011–2014 – Held the position of Minister of Culture .
• 2015–2020 – Engaged in private entrepreneurial activities .
• 2020–2024 – Elected Vice President of Abkhazia under Aslan Bzhania’s administration.

Following Bzhania's resignation in November 2024 , Gunba took over as acting president before launching his presidential bid.