No Celebrations to Be Expected, by Izida Chania

On 1 March, Abkhazia held early presidential elections, which were marked by unprecedented violations of electoral law and interference from Russia in the voting process. The Central Election Commission (CEC) declared Badra Gunba, the former vice president of the ousted Aslan Bzhania, as the new president.

Gunba received both informational and financial support from the Russian leadership, securing over 50% of the votes cast in the second round. Meanwhile, more than 40% of Abkhaz voters backed opposition candidate Adgur Ardzinba. This was confirmed by the head of Abkhazia’s CEC, Dmitry Marshan.

The electoral process was riddled with violations: the exclusion of the diaspora from voting, voter coercion through false narratives and public denunciations against civil society representatives and the opposition candidate (branding them as anti-Russian, pro-Western, pro-Turkish, etc.), voting with other people’s passports, vote-buying, unsealed ballot boxes, the opening of ballot boxes, and even shootings at a minimum of two polling stations. Yet, these irregularities were ignored by the CEC chairman, who was appointed by former president Bzhania in 2020. Marshan fulfilled the task assigned to him by his overseers, relying on the standard mantra that the violations "did not affect the electoral process." He even stated that the scattered and water-soaked ballots would be collected and recounted.

Neither the Abkhazian Prosecutor’s Office nor the international observers present at all polling stations acknowledged the widespread violations. Instead, they endorsed the elections as a democratic process conducted without irregularities.

The opposition did not extend congratulations to Badra Gunba. This time, there was no show of courtesy, no handshakes, no pleasantries. Given the nature of this election campaign, already dubbed the dirtiest in post-war history, such gestures would have been unexpected. However, contrary to the narrative pushed by Gunba’s PR team, the opposition did not attempt to storm the CEC.

Reflecting on Abkhazia’s electoral campaign, one thing becomes clear: the absence of a candidate’s programme, disastrous live debates, and breaches of electoral law are of no consequence. The status quo has been restored, taking the country back to where it stood on 15 November, only this time without the fence surrounding the government buildings. This is the only tangible, visual change. Otherwise, Bzhania’s entire administrative arsenal remains in place, at least until the inauguration, after which the usual game of "musical chairs" will take place within the inner circle of the ruling elite.

For younger generations, it is worth recalling that the complex of administrative and government buildings on the Mukhadzhirs [Exiles] Embankment used to house the regional and city committees of the Communist Party. Not only have their traditions and the deeply ingrained worldview of Soviet-era autonomists endured, but so too has the "cadre potential," often passed down as a political inheritance.

By 2 March, political strategists and PR teams, having basked in the Abkhazian sun, began departing en masse, leaving behind an army of internet trolls, heightened interethnic tensions, and yet another societal rift.

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+ Abkhaz Elections Under Russian Pressure, by Izida Chania

Under these circumstances, the question of what to expect from the new-old government is hardly worth asking. Everything will remain the same: officials, corruption, security forces, pressure on dissent, and the artificial inflation of electricity and fuel prices. The "new-old" bill on apartments will be introduced in Parliament under the guise of discussion, terminology may change, but the essence will remain intact. Gunba will sign off on agreements granting tax exemptions to foreign oligarchs, as well as the cooperation pact between Russia’s National Guard and Abkhazia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, which envisages joint efforts to maintain public order "on the territories of both countries."

Undoubtedly, the bill on "foreign agents," which deputies previously dodged under public pressure, will resurface. It is equally likely that the law on selling real estate to foreigners and the issue of the New Athos Monastery will be revisited. The 2025 budget, drafted by Bzhania’s team, which allocates all national revenue towards maintaining the authorities, will be passed with only minor amendments. Notably, Parliament had persistently refused to adopt the budget until now, an unlikely coincidence.

Another outcome of this electoral "democracy" will be the return of a closed government regime and the complete absence of transparency in governance.

Presidential decrees issued by Acting President Valery Bganba, which imposed a moratorium on electricity tariff increases and customs duties, will likely be revoked, possibly even before the inauguration. It is also probable that the parliamentary commission on reforms will be dissolved. Pressure on citizens through the revocation of Russian citizenship will continue. Notably, during the election campaign, Russian citizenship was revoked from three Abkhazian individuals, a small fraction of the larger list of undesirables presented by former president Bzhania to his strategic partner.

But is there anything positive to take from this? At first glance, a paradoxical picture emerges: on 1 March, after polling stations closed, it was not Gunba’s headquarters but the opposition’s that looked like the headquarters of a victor. A vast crowd gathered there. In reality, this is no paradox at all, by that time, the "dormant" Bzhania-Ankvab electorate had either left the country or gone to sleep. They had no real interest in the outcome of Abkhazia’s presidential election.

+ Misconceptions and Misinformation in Russian Media on Abkhazia, by Sergey Markedonov

+ Badra Gunba: A New Leader or Bzhania 2.0?

+ Abkhazian Parliament Rejects Russian Investment Agreement

+ Opponents of the "Foreign Agents" Law in Abkhazia: "Let's Hope that Bad Examples Are Not Always Contagious"

+ Abkhazian Parliament Withdraws Apartment Law

And therein lies the positive takeaway, 40% of the country’s citizens voted for the opposition candidate. They were not necessarily voting for Adgur Ardzinba, nor were they merely voting against Gunba-Bzhania-Ankvab. They were voting for the preservation of Abkhazia’s statehood. No matter how it is spun, these are engaged citizens who have expressed their stance on the past and the future of their country. Their resolve cannot simply be erased through electoral manipulation.

The elections are over. The "Swallow" has departed, the planes have taken off, the PR consultants have left, and the cars carrying mimosa flowers have crossed the border. The country is now in an information lull, behind closed doors, government positions are being shuffled as rewards for electoral participation. The ousted president, Aslan Bzhania, awaits the prime ministerial portfolio. Acting President Valery Bganba will today step aside for "Acting President" Badra Gunba, who will shed the "acting" title after the inauguration.

This article was published by Nuzhnaya Gazeta and is translated from Russian.