Abkhazia – The Second Round: Quantitative and Qualitative Parameters, by Sergey Markedonov

Following Abkhazia’s presidential runoff election, Badra Gunba secured victory with 54.73% of the vote, while Adgur Ardzinba received 41.5%. Renowned Caucasus expert Sergey Markedonov, in his analysis, examines what these results reveal about Abkhazia’s political landscape, the challenges of uniting a divided electorate, and Russia’s role in the process. He also considers the broader lessons from the election, from media narratives to the future of governance in the republic.

This article is sourced from Sergey Markedonov's Telegram channel and is translated from Russian.

The Abkhazian Central Election Commission has announced the preliminary results of the elections. Now, speculation and conjecture can give way to official data, which we can attempt to interpret. Badra Gunba secured 54.73% of the vote, while his main opponent, Adgur Ardzinba, garnered 41.5%.

The victor is receiving congratulations on his win. Indeed, it must be acknowledged that he has endured an exceptionally challenging campaign. His entry into the race was marked by echoes of a domestic political crisis compounded by an energy crisis. Throughout the campaign, he not only faced competition from the opposition but also encountered significant differences with the interim administration. Badra Gunba demonstrated both strong fighting qualities and crisis management skills. As a public politician, he has likely grown more in the past few months than in all his previous years as vice president and minister.

However, Adgur Ardzinba also displayed a high level of competence. Despite enduring intense media scrutiny, including accusations of Turkophilia, nationalism, Armenophobia, and clan-based politics, he still managed to secure 41.5% of the vote, an improvement on his performance five years ago. It is highly probable that he will remain a key figure in Abkhazian politics.

The Abkhazian society and political landscape remain divided. In the second round, 54,954 voters supported Gunba, while 41,708 cast their ballots for Ardzinba. Although this is not as close as the 2019 elections, when Raul Khajimba won against Alkhas Kvitsinia by a mere 1,027 votes, the margin is still far from overwhelming. The demand for a ‘third force’ remains unmet, as only 2,065 voters chose the ‘none of the above’ option. This means that the winner of the electoral race will need to make significant efforts to unify both the political sphere and society around common ideas. These could include setting the country on a development trajectory, decriminalisation, and improving the quality of governance and administration.

The 2025 elections have seen much discussion about Russia’s role, and it is worth addressing this factor. Moscow’s interest in Abkhazia and its attempts to influence internal processes in the republic are not new. The success or failure of the ‘Abkhazian project’ directly impacts Russia’s own international positioning. Two key aspects must be considered here. Firstly, there is a discrepancy in perception: for Moscow and its political elite, the Abkhazian issue is not a top priority, whereas for Sukhum, Russia is priority number one, two, three, and beyond. Secondly, Russia is not particularly comfortable with Abkhazia’s recurring cycle of snap elections and leadership changes. These two factors combined have shaped the dynamics observed thus far.

While senior officials in Moscow have sought to maintain political decorum and emphasise the need to understand Abkhazia’s unique characteristics, lower-ranking officials and affiliated political strategists and PR consultants have been less concerned with nuances. This has led to an oversimplification of the narrative, attempting to frame it within familiar Ukrainian media algorithms: pro-Russian vs. anti-Russian, pro-Western vs. anti-Western, the ‘hand of Türkiye’ (despite Russia’s current non-adversarial stance towards Erdoğan). In this context, it is worth recalling the well-known Thomas theorem: ‘If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences.’ It is crucial not to get carried away with these narratives and to resist the temptation to construct an information reality in line with Pelevin’s insights from Generation P.

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+ Is it true that a crisis has arisen in Russia-Abkhazia relations? By Sergey Markedonov 

+ Sergey Markedonov: "Understanding Abkhazia’s Protests Requires Distinguishing Causes from Triggers" 

For Russia, the ‘Africanisation of Abkhazia’, understood as a cycle of perpetual coups and revolutions, poses a significant risk. Equally dangerous, however, is the ‘Ukrainisation’ of Abkhazia, wherein local political dynamics are misrepresented through external frameworks that do not correspond to Abkhazia’s realities.

To end on a more optimistic note, it is worth recalling the final debate between the two candidates. They demonstrated an ability to engage in substantive discussion without resorting to insults or personal attacks. If only these qualities could be translated into practical governance! After all, life does not end with the elections.