Markedonov: "A Second Political Crisis in Abkhazia Is the Last Thing Russia Needs"

Abkhazia finds itself at a political crossroads once again, with tensions rising ahead of the second round of its presidential elections. Moscow has reaffirmed its commitment to stability in the republic, highlighting its strategic interest in the region. With allegations of electoral violations and political manoeuvring swirling, the electoral process remains on shaky ground. Sergey Markedonov, a senior research fellow at MGIMO and a leading expert on the Caucasus and Russian foreign policy, examines the unfolding situation.

Originally published on the Bunin & Co Telegram channel, this commentary has been translated into English by AbkhazWorld.

"It is important for us that the electoral process is concluded within the framework of legality. This is a country close to us, bound by strong ties of cooperation. Therefore, we naturally support stability in Abkhazia." With this statement, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, outlined Moscow’s position. This remark is significant for two reasons. First, it aims to temper the political tensions running high in Abkhazia during the early presidential elections. Second, it underscores Moscow’s vested interest in maintaining stability in the republic. A second wave of domestic political crisis in Abkhazia following the runoff election is the last thing Russia needs.

Abkhazia is preparing for the second round of voting, scheduled for the first of March. However, it would be premature to assume that all challenges following the first round have been overcome. Just days after the initial vote, serious disagreements emerged between Valeriy Bganba, the acting president of Abkhazia, and Badra Gumba, the leading candidate in the election. Before Aslan Bzhania’s resignation, Gunba had served as vice president and later as acting head of the republic.

Gunba expressed dissatisfaction with Bganba’s decision to dismiss Dmitry Kuchuberiya, the head of the State Security Service. Gunba viewed this move as an attempt to derail the election and cast doubt on the compromise agreement between the authorities and the opposition. Without taking a stance on this interpretation, it is notable that Bganba has demonstrated a reluctance to serve merely as a figurehead or a "transitional leader." This was evident in his open appeal to President Vladimir Putin, in which he urged against the stigmatisation of particular candidates in the Abkhazian elections while reaffirming the republic’s commitment to a pro-Russian course. Furthermore, he later questioned the rationale behind Russia’s quarantine measures affecting Abkhazian mimosa exports.

+ A Postponed Game and Pressing Questions, by Sergey Markedonov

+ Misconceptions and Misinformation in Russian Media on Abkhazia, by Sergey Markedonov

+ Is it true that a crisis has arisen in Russia-Abkhazia relations? By Sergey Markedonov

+ Ardzinba Headquarters Calls for Transparent Second Round

It appeared that the two main candidates in the electoral race had reached a compromise. On 21 February, Badra Gumba and Adgur Ardzinba signed an agreement outlining several key points, most notably: "There is an unshakable consensus within Abkhazian society regarding the country’s sovereignty and the further strengthening of equal and allied relations with Russia." However, the most crucial aspect was the candidates’ declared commitment to recognising the final election results. Had a compromise truly been reached?

Unfortunately, just a day after the agreement was signed, Ardzinba’s campaign team accused his opponent of violating its terms. Allegations of possible electoral fraud continue to be widely discussed in society, fuelling heightened emotions. On the one hand, a foundation for the peaceful conclusion of the electoral process has been laid through the agreement between the two candidates. On the other, this foundation remains fragile due to the prevailing atmosphere of mutual distrust and accusations.