A Postponed Game and Pressing Questions, by Sergey Markedonov

Following Abkhazia's presidential election on 15 February 2025, where neither candidate secured an outright majority, the Black Sea republic is heading for a second-round runoff. The first round saw Badra Gunba receiving 46.38% of the votes and Adgur Ardzinba securing 36.92%. In his analysis, renowned Caucasus expert Sergey Markedonov examines the deeper dynamics of Abkhazia's political landscape, exploring why a second round was predictable, the significance of both candidates representing a post-war generation, and the delicate balance between democratic aspirations and geopolitical realities in the region. 

This article is sourced from Sergey Markedonov's Telegram channel and is translated from Russian.

"There will inevitably be a second round, in which Badra Gunba and Adgur Ardzinba will compete."

With these words, the Chairman of the Central Election Commission of Abkhazia, Dmitry Marshan, addressed the public. For now, we will refrain from commenting on the initial figures, as the Republican Election Commission will soon release the official results. However, we can already assess the broader implications of the voting.

Once again, I cannot resist the temptation to cite myself. As early as 16 January, immediately after the registration of presidential candidates, I predicted a high probability of a second round. To substantiate my claim, I refer readers to my earlier statement.

I should clarify that this prediction was not based on any special insight or talent. For anyone attempting an impartial analysis of the situation in Abkhazia, rather than indulging in outlandish fantasies of "geopolitical pivots" towards Türkiye, the imposition of a "Russian governor," or a "confederation with Georgia", certain realities are evident. First, Abkhazia, for all the constraints imposed by its ethno-political framework, maintains a competitive political environment and a degree of democracy. This democratic impulse is not a mere trend, nor the product of USAID initiatives or grant-driven activism. It is the outcome of a struggle for identity, shaped by the legacy of imperial and Soviet dissolution, conflict, blockade, and post-war reconstruction. In a small republic like Abkhazia, it is impossible to erect barriers between the government and the public. The people want not only to know their leaders but also to understand the consequences of their leadership. Is the process imperfect? Certainly. But who ever said that functioning political systems emerge overnight, free of setbacks? France itself has endured multiple revolutions and coups. As Jean-Paul Belmondo's character in The Professional remarked, "No need to remind me how the world works."

Second, where there is a demand for competition and democracy, candidates with greater public recognition tend to gain an advantage. This has been the case in previous elections, and there is no reason to expect otherwise now.

Throughout January and February 2025, a host of dubious "consultants" emerged in the media and on Telegram channels, individuals who would struggle to locate Abkhazia on a map, pontificating about "our" and "not our" candidates. Their contributions, however marginal, likely played a role in necessitating a second round. The real concern, however, is not these self-styled electoral strategists but the fact that their opinions sometimes carry weight in high places. Decision-makers often prefer simplified narratives, but as the saying goes, simplicity can be the greatest peril.

Abkhazia does not, at least as of now, operate within the framework of "our" versus "not our" candidates. Badra Gunba’s main obstacle was his relatively low public profile and the overly insistent branding of him as "Moscow’s man in Sukhum." A fundamental rule of business and pedagogy alike: if you want your partner to support your decision, present it as their own. Yet some remain enamoured with the playbook of 2004. To Gunba’s credit, despite assuming leadership in Abkhazia amid a severe crisis, he has demonstrated the qualities of an effective manager and skilled negotiator, prioritising substance over mere public relations, a crucial trait. He will need to maintain strong ties with Moscow, as would his opponent if victorious.

As for Adgur Ardzinba, his public recognition is his greatest asset but also his greatest liability. Passion and political ambition are valuable, but sometimes, as the old adage goes, it is wiser to maintain a knowing silence in critical debates.

For now, a "third force" in Abkhazian politics has yet to materialise, though there is evident demand for one. The late general and politician Alexander Lebed (1950–2002) once remarked that in our part of the world, "the search for a third force usually ends with the discovery of a fifth corner."

+ Misconceptions and Misinformation in Russian Media on Abkhazia, by Sergey Markedonov

+ Is it true that a crisis has arisen in Russia-Abkhazia relations? By Sergey Markedonov 

+ The Second Round and Russia’s Image Losses, by Izida Chania

Abkhazian politics remains bifurcated, dominated by two main factions: the "Bagapshists-Ankvabists" and the "Ardzinbists-Khadzhimbists." This may not always be the case, but for now, we have what we have. It is time for both sides to embrace the wisdom of another Alexander—Herzen (1812–1870): "Their heads turned in different directions, but their hearts beat as one." Two main political forces may exist, perhaps even a third, but there is only one Abkhazia. One republic, shared by all.

A notable aspect of this election is that both candidates advancing to the second round represent a new, post-war generation. Gunba and Ardzinba were both born in 1981. This generational shift merits further analysis and understanding.

The priority now is to see the electoral process through to its conclusion in a calm and orderly manner, avoiding unnecessary escalation or attempts to impose geopolitical narratives onto a domestic electoral contest. There is no need to "search for a black cat in a dark room, especially when it isn’t there." The real task at hand is to consolidate the Abkhazian political class and society, ensuring effective relations between Sukhum and Moscow with due regard for the interests of a major power and the distinct characteristics of the local political landscape.