The Second Round and Russia’s Image Losses, by Izida Chania

In the aftermath of Abkhazia’s presidential election, Izida Chania analyses the unprecedented interference by Russia, its impact on the electoral process, and the broader consequences for Abkhazian society. She highlights the suppression of opposition voices, the manipulation of ethnic tensions, and the reputational costs Moscow has incurred in its attempt to secure a favourable outcome.

On 15 February, the presidential elections in Abkhazia took place. As expected, a second round was announced, with two candidates, one from the government and one from the opposition, proceeding to the runoff. The results of the first round showed that neither side secured even 50% of the votes. The so-called "third force" received just 12% of the vote, as anticipated. The 10% lead of the pro-government candidate was insufficient to secure an outright victory.

Many observers described this election as a test of Abkhazia’s political maturity. They noted that it was a direct clash between the power of capital, which seeks to erode statehood, and the national-state project promoted by the opposition. To summarise the election results, I will begin with a firm assertion—one that some may disagree with: our country has failed this test of maturity spectacularly.

The elections were held under unprecedented interference from Russia, which openly backed the Bzhania-Ankvab coalition. This support was accompanied by two false narratives, claims of anti-Russian sentiment and allegations of Turkish influence. These narratives effectively diverted attention from internal issues, which had accumulated over five years and led to growing dissatisfaction. However, despite Moscow’s backing, the pro-government candidate failed to achieve the expected advantage. Neither the billions funnelled into the campaign nor the chartered flight to Sukhum airport carrying pro-government candidate Gunba and his family, nor the army of Russian political strategists, nor the revocation of Russian citizenship for opponents of the pro-government candidate, handpicked from Bzhania’s lists, were enough to ensure victory. Not even the performance of the Pyatnitsky Choir, which toured Abkhazia during the campaign, could salvage the situation.

Russia’s interference in the Abkhaz elections was evident not only through endorsements and public events, where the pro-government candidate was portrayed as the sole recipient of Russian support, but also through the persistent rhetoric about anti-Russian sentiment within Abkhaz society, as well as threats of salary cuts and power outages. Additionally, to diminish the number of Abkhaz votes and deprive the opposition of electoral support, the polling station in Türkiye, home to a large Abkhaz diaspora, was shut down. The diaspora was not even given time to travel to Abkhazia to vote, as the closure of the polling station in Sakarya was announced just before the elections.

+ Abkhazia’s Presidential Elections Head to a Runoff – Second Round Set for 1 March

+ Abkhaz Citizens Denied Entry to Russia, Deported Amid Presidential Elections

+ Abkhazia’s Repatriation Chairman Raises Concerns Over Deportation of Umit Ashba

+ Abkhazian Diaspora in Türkiye Faces Blocked Elections and Intimidation

However, the most striking events on election day were the deportations. Young musician Baras Kudzba, well known in Abkhazia and a laureate of numerous Russian competitions, was expelled from Russia. Meanwhile, Ümit Ashba, a veteran of the Georgian-Abkhazian war, was deported from Adler Airport to Istanbul. An Abkhaz citizen was denied the right to transit through Russia to return to his homeland.

After it became known that Baras Kudzba had been deported from Russia with a 10-year entry ban, his father, Ali Kudzba, a descendant of exiled Abkhazians and a permanent resident of Abkhazia, shared an emotional post on social media:

"Now I know that Baras has been deported from Russia for 10 years. My family and I are ready to be deported for 100 years if it means we can peacefully complete these elections today. Let us not fall into the trap set by those who want to use this incident to provoke us," wrote Ali Kudzba.

These events compel me to focus on the pressure exerted on ethnic Abkhazians, who, at the behest of Abkhaz politicians backed by Moscow, are being deprived of their fundamental right to freedom of movement, through the revocation of Russian citizenship under fabricated charges and the imposition of entry bans to Russia. This orchestrated action was not only a "stick" to exert control but also served another purpose: the artificial suppression of the number of ethnic Abkhazians participating in a highly significant political process.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this marks the first time that Abkhazians have been so openly and unjustifiably denied the right to visit their historical homeland or to participate in elections both abroad and within Abkhazia itself. Moreover, it is the first instance where such actions have been carried out under the direct recommendation of Abkhazia’s leadership. There is no other way to describe this than as political persecution. And yet, these methods of silencing opponents did not elicit any outrage from the pro-government candidate Gunba, because, in the grand scheme, all of these tactics were meant to secure his overwhelming victory in the first round.

What is particularly striking to me is that, despite Moscow’s extraordinary efforts, Bzhania’s successor failed to achieve a significant electoral advantage. Even with all the resources deployed, he did not secure the support of half of the electorate.

In any other country, such blatant and undisguised foreign interference in the electoral process would have led to protests and possibly even the annulment of the elections. However, our Central Election Commission (CEC) was unprepared for such decisive action. As a result, going into the second round, those who have been given free rein over electoral tactics will now escalate ethnic tensions. Meanwhile, discussions on pensions, salaries, electricity, water, and, most importantly, the reform of the political system, issues that genuinely concern the citizens of this country, will once again be sidelined. Political strategists will ensure that we remain distracted from the real priorities: demographics, education, healthcare, corruption, and national security.

And one more point. By securing electoral support for Bzhania’s successori and, by extension, for corruption, Moscow may have succeeded in increasing the number of votes cast for "their" candidate while reducing the participation of ethnic Abkhazians. However, there is no doubt that in doing so, Russia has suffered significant damage to its reputation.

This article was published by Nuzhnaya Gazeta and is translated from Russian.

See also:

+ The First Round Must Be the Last, by Izida Chania

+ Abkhaz Elections Under Russian Pressure, by Izida Chania