The First Round Must Be the Last, by Izida Chania

Just four days before the presidential elections in Abkhazia—unprecedented in its history—the political landscape is filled with manipulation, administrative pressure, and strategic media campaigns. In this article, journalist Izida Chania examines the high-stakes tactics at play, showing how the pro-government candidate, Badra Gunba, is using financial and institutional resources to secure a first-round victory, his only real chance of winning. From mobilising the Russian Abkhazian diaspora to inflating voter numbers at the Moscow polling station, the article lays out the political manoeuvres shaping this election.

The pre-election frenzy in Abkhazia has taken on all the hallmarks of a witches’ sabbath that even Woland (the enigmatic and diabolical character from The Master and Margarita by Mikhail Bulgakov —Ed.) himself would envy. It turns out he is not the only one capable of staging performances of black magic and showering audiences with money. In our country, he has a worthy rival, one who extracts light, sends a steel bird soaring into the sky, and strides with sweeping confidence through the offices of Russian officials.

The sponsors backing the pro-government candidate, Badra Gunba, are spending sums on his presidential campaign in Abkhazia that rival the state budget, not out of humanitarian concern, but with long-term plans to exploit our country. Local administrative leverage is working in their favour: employees of budgetary institutions and law enforcement officers who declare they will not vote for the pro-government candidate are being dismissed from their jobs. Swarms of bots have been unleashed to target independent Telegram channels in an effort to block them, while pro-Gunba self-promotion has flooded every Abkhazian media platform. Voters are being handed cash, and promises are being made to repair roads and infrastructure. The face of these roadworks is none other than Gunba himself, the same Gunba who, as vice president, kept a low profile, stayed out of sight, and quietly enriched himself by abusing his office. Of course, we all understand that this spectacle of reckless largesse is nothing more than a high-interest loan, and the ones who will have to repay it are the electorate, ever susceptible to handouts and propaganda.

On 15 February, Abkhazia will hold the first round of its presidential elections. And the first round must be the last, because this is Gunba’s only chance at victory. To secure it, he must obtain more than 50% of the votes. A second round would spell disaster for him and would most likely lead to new elections. First, in a runoff, there are no polling stations outside Abkhazia, reducing the influence of Russian media, which actively lobby for the pro-government candidate. But most crucially, the "against all" option comes into play in the second round. In other words, it is not enough for a candidate to receive more votes than their opponent, the total number of votes cast for the winner must also exceed the combined total of votes for their rival and those who vote "against all." This makes winning a second round practically impossible. Evading this rule "by default" is no longer an option, as it became the subject of legal proceedings during the 2019 elections, when the current authorities annulled the results in order to pave the way for Aslan Bzhania, who was undergoing medical treatment in Munich at the time. This was achieved by manipulating the "against all" clause.

+ CEC Abkhazia Outlines Voting Procedures Ahead of Presidential Election

+ Badra Gunba’s Special Test Flight: A 'Masterclass' in Election Propaganda

+ Ardzinba Campaign Denounces Disinformation Amidst Electoral Tensions

+ Who is Behind the Advertising Strategy of Badra Gunba’s Campaign?

+ Misconceptions and Misinformation in Russian Media on Abkhazia, by Sergey Markedonov

In the 2025 elections, securing 50% +1 for the pro-government candidate in the first round requires additional electoral resources. To achieve this, political strategists have mobilised not only the Krasnodar-based electorate but also the entire Russian Abkhazian diaspora, which remains susceptible to RT [Russia Today]’s propaganda. Meanwhile, in an effort to discredit the presidential candidate Adgur Ardzinba, who enjoys strong support from local voters and draws large crowds at campaign events in Abkhazia, Russian media and certain politicians are resorting to fabrications lifted straight from the imagination of former president Aslan Bzhania, falsely portraying the opposition candidate as pro-Turkish and anti-Russian.

Gunba’s political strategists are now attempting to "awaken" the dormant electorate outside Abkhazia, stoking tensions with fake news, commissioned polls, and unverified information. These "awakened" voters are being paid for their travel, votes, and participation in meetings in Moscow, where Gunba, much like his predecessor, spends most of his time. Unsurprisingly, the primary focus is on the Moscow polling station, which typically sees fewer than a thousand voters. These are Abkhazian citizens residing in Moscow either temporarily or permanently. However, for this election, organisers plan to bring in Abkhazian citizens from all over Russia to vote at the Moscow station.

I won’t dwell on the past frenzy surrounding demands to open polling stations in almost every major Russian city, as that plan ultimately failed. Instead, I will highlight a request made by Abkhazia’s ambassador to Russia to the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) of Abkhazia. It is worth noting that Alkhas Kvitsinia was a proxy candidate for former president Bzhania in the 2019 elections. In gratitude for the annulment of those election results, he was first appointed as head of administration under Bzhania and later as Abkhazia’s ambassador to Russia. Incidentally, should this electoral "sabbath" succeed, this position has been promised to the former president. Last week, Ambassador Kvitsinia requested 7,000 ballots for Moscow, at least seven times more than the usual number of voters at the Moscow polling station. Members of the CEC debated this request for more than three hours. Despite mathematical reasoning and a demonstration conducted by colleagues, Gunba’s supporters remained unconvinced. The fact is that processing a single voter takes up to three minutes, and even with the polling station staff (expanded to its maximum size at the ambassador’s request), it would be physically impossible to process more than 2,800 voters, even without breaks. Nonetheless, a compromise decision was reached, defying both logic and human capability: 4,000 ballots will be sent to the Moscow polling station. Pro-government members of the Abkhazian CEC (who form the majority, given that the commission is appointed by the president and parliament) insist that all voters who turn up must be accommodated, even if voting hours have officially ended. This is one of those rare instances where the authorities suddenly claim to care about human rights.

To complete the picture, one must also mention the unusual level of foreign interest in Abkhazia’s elections from international observers and journalists. The CEC has already received over 200 applications from Russian observers and nearly 100 from Russian journalists. Russia Today, in particular, is demonstrating a keen interest. Judging by its editorial stance on Abkhazia, we can expect nothing but provocative misinformation and conveniently tailored exit polls designed to favour the pro-government candidate. So, let us brace ourselves, on the night of 15 to 16 February, we are in for a classic Walpurgis Night (a night from European folklore linked to witches’ gatherings—here symbolising political chaos and manipulation —Ed.).

This article was first published in Nuzhnaya Gazeta in Russian and is translated by AbkhazWorld.