Seven Key Challenges for Badra Gunba: Can the New President Avoid the Fate of His Predecessors?

The presidential elections in Abkhazia have concluded, with Badra Gunba emerging as the victor. However, his path to power was not solely shaped by electoral competition but also by the unprecedented use of administrative resources, strong backing from Russian authorities, and extensive media support. Planes, buses, and trains were mobilised in a campaign that saw resources deployed on an unprecedented scale.

Now, he faces significant challenges: maintaining power, restoring public trust, and avoiding the missteps of his predecessors.

Badra Gunba has positioned himself as a unifying president, yet the reality is that he is confronted with seven key challenges that will determine his political future.

Leuan Mikaa, an opposition figure and revered war hero, veteran of the Georgian-Abkhazian War of 1992–1993, and Leuan Lagulaa, Chief Editor of ApsnyHabar, outline these seven key challenges that Gunba must confront in order to establish his leadership and navigate Abkhazia’s turbulent political landscape.

1. A Divided Society: Can Badra Gunba Be a President for All?

One of the main outcomes of the election has been the deep polarisation of society. Russian media have already described it as a "fractured society", and this is no exaggeration. Political divisions have reached a critical point, and despite his rhetoric on unity, Badra Gunba will have to face a harsh reality: a significant portion of the population is already deeply sceptical of his presidency.

He faces the arduous task of reducing confrontation, rebuilding trust, and seeking compromises. Will he be able to prove that he can be a president for all?

2. Fragile Legitimacy: How Can He Earn the Trust of His Critics?

Despite the enormous resources mobilised in his favour, 44,000 Abkhaz citizens who participated in the elections did not vote for Badra Gunba. This fact underscores the fragility of his legitimacy.

These individuals represent an active civil society that remains critical of any government actions. How Gunba engages with this segment of the population will be crucial in determining his ability to consolidate his presidency and govern effectively.

3. Economic Independence: Will Gunba Present a Plan to Overcome the Crisis?

During his election campaign, Badra Gunba did not present a concrete programme for addressing Abkhazia’s economic problems, including its fiscal and energy dependence on Russia. This is one of the most pressing challenges he must confront in the near future.

For Abkhazia to cease being a heavily subsidised state, Gunba must propose a programme that enables self-financing and self-sufficiency. This would lay the foundation for long-term economic stability and reduce reliance on external financial injections.

To develop and implement such a programme, he will need to leverage not only the resources of his team but also actively involve the opposition, the diaspora, and external experts to establish a comprehensive and coordinated approach. This is a critical issue on the agenda that will require broad political and public support.

However, if he fails to present his own economic agenda to Russia, his own initiatives for economic development and strategies for reducing reliance on subsidies, an alternative scenario will inevitably emerge: a plan for Abkhazia will be formulated externally. Russia, as it continues to support Abkhazia’s budget, will act in accordance with its own interests and propose measures that primarily serve its own priorities rather than Abkhazia’s.

We have already seen this dynamic in the controversial investment agreement, where the lack of Abkhaz initiative resulted in conditions being dictated by the partner. It is therefore crucial to take a proactive stance. Otherwise, continued financial assistance will naturally come with expectations of concessions and decisions in areas where Abkhazia’s and Russia’s interests may not align.

This presents another major challenge for Gunba: can he put forward a strategy for Abkhazia, or will the country’s economy continue to develop according to external priorities?

4. How Can He Distance Himself from a Toxic Inner Circle?

Figures who are widely criticised by the public remain in the new president’s entourage. Among them are representatives of the previous administration, security officials, and bureaucrats whom Abkhaz society perceives as symbols of corruption and political repression.

Is Badra Gunba prepared to distance himself from such individuals as Aslan Bzhania, Alexander Ankvab, and Minister of Economy Kristina Ozgan, who signed the controversial investment agreement, as well as other contentious figures? Their continued presence in government automatically undermines trust in him and hinders his ability to overcome the first two challenges.

5. Deportations and Citizenship Revocations: Can Gunba Ease the Tensions?

One of the most contentious issues in recent months has been the revocation of citizenship and deportation of several well-known opposition and political figures, war veterans, and members of the repatriated community.

This move has sparked outrage among the diaspora and patriotic circles in Abkhazia. If Gunba fails to address this issue, he risks severely undermining the very concept of repatriation, which is fundamental to the survival of the Abkhaz people. Whether he restores justice or leaves the issue unresolved will be a crucial marker of his presidency.

6. Corruption: Can Gunba Dismantle the Old Networks?

Corruption remains one of Abkhazia’s most pressing problems. The new president faces a dual challenge: on one hand, the public demands genuine anti-corruption efforts; on the other, figures within his inner circle have been linked to illicit dealings.

Furthermore, Abkhazia will soon have to negotiate a new investment agreement, and concerns about corruption in this process will be closely scrutinised. If Gunba fails to demonstrate a commitment to real anti-corruption measures, he risks losing even the fragile legitimacy with which he began his presidency.

7. Political Reforms: Can Badra Gunba Avoid the Fate of His Predecessors?

Abkhaz history clearly shows that when a president centralises power and alienates the public, he inevitably loses authority.

The key question is whether Badra Gunba will initiate political reforms. Will he redistribute powers, establish checks and balances, and institutionalise the opposition? Or will he follow the path of his predecessors, ignoring public demands and relying solely on force?

The last three presidents failed to maintain power because they neglected the need for reforms. Will Badra Gunba repeat their mistakes, or will he have the political will to enact meaningful change?

Thus, Badra Gunba assumes office in a climate of fragile legitimacy, deep societal divisions, and heavy dependence on external factors.

Will he be a president of reform, or just another figure in the long line of leaders unable to navigate the challenges of Abkhaz politics?

The coming months will reveal the path he chooses to take.

This article was originally published in Russian on ApsnyHabar Media Outlet’s Telegram channel and translated into English by AbkhazWorld.