Leaked Protocol Ignites Political Storm in Abkhazia: Sovereignty at Stake?

In a shocking development that has sent ripples through Abkhazian society, a controversial document leaked on 29 August 2024 has thrust the small Black Sea nation into a political crisis. The Abkhazian Telegram channel "Respublika" published what appears to be a protocol detailing agreements reached between the Russian Presidential Administration and Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania on 19 August 2024.

The document [English translation in PDF], bearing the signature of Dmitry Kozak, Deputy Head of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, dated 26 August 2024, has raised alarming questions about Abkhazia's sovereignty and its relationship with Russia.

The leaked protocol outlines a series of demands from Moscow that, if implemented, would significantly reshape Abkhazia's political and economic landscape. These include:

1. Removing restrictions on Russian citizens purchasing real estate in Abkhazia.
2. Providing Moscow with a list of Abkhazian deputies who have opposed Russian-backed legislation, particularly the controversial apartment law, potentially for the revocation of their Russian citizenship.
3. Transitioning to a commercial pricing model for electricity supply during the autumn-winter period of 2024.

Perhaps most concerning is the suggestion that President Bzhania not only acquiesced to these demands but also actively participated in pressuring the Abkhazian Parliament and opposition figures. The document alleges that Bzhania complained to Moscow about individuals he deemed detrimental to Russian-Abkhazian relations, urging the Kremlin to revoke their Russian citizenship.

The potential economic impact of these measures is severe. The Socio-Economic Development Programme funded by Russia forms a substantial part of the Abkhazian government's budget. Its suspension, coupled with the shift to commercial electricity pricing, could plunge Abkhazia into significant economic hardship.

This is not the first instance of tension between Abkhazia's executive and legislative branches. Earlier this year, in February, Russia sent a note of protest to the Abkhazian Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding amendments made by Abkhazian parliamentarians to the agreement on the state dacha in Pitsunda. However, this latest development represents a significant escalation in the pressure being applied to Abkhazia's democratic institutions.

"Such an attitude between partners is unacceptable"

The response from Abkhazian opposition figures has been swift and forceful. In a joint statement [English translation in PDF] addressed to President Aslan Bzhania, Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Shamba, and Secretary of the Security Council Raul Lolua, opposition leaders demanded immediate confirmation or denial of the protocol's authenticity. The statement emphasised that the provisions outlined in the document directly threaten Abkhazia's sovereignty and independence, warning that any actions taken by Bzhania in line with these demands would violate the Abkhazian Constitution and could result in criminal liability.

Temur Gulia, leader of the veteran organisation "Aruaa", offered a poignant perspective on the situation:

"If the protocol of the meeting between the Deputy Head of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, Dmitri Kozak, and the President of the Republic of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, on 19 August 2024 is authentic, then in my opinion, it should be commented on by the leadership of our state or refuted. I want to remind you that after the bloody war, when Yeltsin's Russia plunged Abkhazia into a seven-year-long blockade of hunger and cold because we defended our right to historical existence against Georgian fascism, during that difficult period, the Abkhaz people, led by Vladislav Ardzinba, continued to extend a hand of friendship and brotherhood to Russia."

Gulia emphasised the historical importance of Russian-Abkhazian relations while warning against misrepresenting the situation: "The attempts of a narrow circle of people in the leadership of our state to cover their business interests with false information about an allegedly existing anti-Russian opposition before the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation are misleading the leadership of the Russian Federation, which is a very dangerous path."

Valery Bganba, former Prime Minister of Abkhazia, took a stronger stance, describing Kozak's actions as "blackmail and pressure on Abkhazia". He called for an official response from the Russian Embassy in Abkhazia regarding the circulated document, emphasising that "such an attitude between partners is unacceptable".

Member of Parliament Kan Kvarchia highlighted the need for direct accountability: "The document indicates that the president of the country was present; his name appears in this protocol. Therefore, we must personally hear from him whether he confirms or denies this document."

Public figure Tengiz Djopua offered a more reflective perspective on the crisis: "It's easy to despair, but it's pointless. The same goes for blaming others, demanding recompense, or expressing surprise. The latter, in particular, appears absurd and gives the impression of emotional immaturity. Mature individuals ask, 'Why?' They then begin to search for the root causes of the problem."

Djopua argued that the current situation is "the logical result of a decade of 'work' in the 'Abkhazian field' by both the Russian and Abkhazian sides". He called for a fundamental change in approach, urging Abkhazians to "change our perspective on the entire spectrum of relationships, reformat the process of Russian-Abkhaz cooperation, and start living on our own terms and with our own intellect".

"If they consider some people to be hostile to Russia, then they will apply sanctions to them"

―  Sergey Shamba

The Foreign Minister was asked to comment on the authenticity of the ‘Kozak-Bzhania Protocol’. Shamba said that Aslan Bzhania's meeting with Dmitry Kozak took place on 19 August, and the protocol was drawn up on 26 August.

"Our president was no longer present when this document was written, so he cannot confirm this either. The only thing the president did was say that the question of him giving any obligations was not true. This is posted on the president's website, you can read it," he said.

Shamba also noted that in today's world, deprivation of citizenship is a completely applicable sanction.

"You know, it is used all the time. Why go far when the deputies of the Parliament of South Ossetia were deprived of Russian citizenship. This is the prerogative of the Russian side, as it believes. This is an issue that we cannot influence in any way. If they consider some people to be hostile to Russia, then they will apply sanctions to them," the minister said.

Abkhazia: Between Hammer and Anvil

The current crisis underscores a broader geopolitical reality facing Abkhazia. Far from achieving its intended goals, the international isolation of Abkhazia has paradoxically strengthened Russia's influence in the region. This isolation, rather than distancing Abkhazia from Russia, has pushed it further into Moscow's sphere of influence—a situation that undoubtedly pleases Russian strategists.

The relationship between Russia and Abkhazia is far more complex than a simple regional alliance. In fact, the strategic value of Abkhazia to Russia is arguably as significant as Russia's importance to Abkhazia. Moscow's current position as the primary external partner for Abkhazia affords it considerable influence, a situation that aligns well with Russia's broader geopolitical objectives.

Despite officially recognising Abkhazia's independence, Russia might not be entirely supportive of Abkhazia gaining wider international recognition —or even the establishment of economic ties between Abkhazia and other nations without formal recognition—. Consider, for instance, the hypothetical scenario of the United States engaging with Abkhazia, regardless of its recognition status. Such a development would almost certainly face indirect opposition from Russia, not out of any particular animosity, but simply because it would not align with Moscow's strategic interests. Such a development could potentially dilute Russia's influence in the region, conflicting with its national interests. Russia's stance on Abkhazia is deeply intertwined with its desire to maintain a strong presence in the Black Sea region and the Caucasus.

Abkhazia's strategic location makes it a valuable asset in Russia's geopolitical calculations. The decision to recognise Abkhazia's independence in 2008 was likely motivated more by Russia's strategic considerations than by the specific concerns of Abkhazia itself. This recognition has allowed Russia to strengthen its foothold in a region it considers vital to its interests.

It's important to note that Russia's approach to Abkhazia is not unusual in the realm of international relations. Nations typically act in ways that serve their perceived national interests. However, this reality presents a significant challenge for Abkhazia. To maintain its sovereignty and pursue its own national objectives, Abkhazia must carefully navigate its relationship with Russia. The key for Abkhazia lies in developing policies and strategies that prioritize its own national interests, rather than automatically aligning with Russia's agenda. This approach is crucial for Abkhazia to avoid becoming overly dependent on Russia and to chart its own course in the international arena.

This complex web of geopolitical interests leaves Abkhazia in a precarious position, aptly described by the metaphor of being caught between the hammer (Russia) and the anvil (Georgia). This challenging situation shows no signs of resolution in the near future. Tragically, the actions of certain corrupt leaders within Abkhazia itself have only served to exacerbate these difficulties, further compromising the welfare and aspirations of the Abkhaz people.

As Abkhazia navigates these turbulent waters, the need for astute, principled leadership has never been more critical. The path forward will require a delicate balance between maintaining necessary relationships and safeguarding national sovereignty—a task that will test the wisdom and resolve of Abkhazia's political class in the years to come.

The situation remains fluid, with many in Abkhazia anxiously awaiting an official response from President Bzhania and his administration. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future direction of Abkhazian politics and its relationship with Russia. As the crisis unfolds, the eyes of the international community will undoubtedly be drawn to this small but strategically significant Black Sea nation.